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Employer SG and wage growth

Employer SG (currently 12%) is calculated on your salary each year. The engine applies wage growth from your career phase's start age, so projected contributions grow over time. If your salary will change materially at a future age, add a career phase to capture it.

Investment return and fees

The return rate is applied to your balance after contributions but before fees. Fund fees (investment fee as % of balance, flat admin fee, and insurance premium) are then deducted. A fund advertising 7% with a 0.8% fee yields approximately 6.2% net — you can enter the gross return with the fee explicit, or 6.2% directly with fees at $0. Both give the same result; the explicit approach lets you see the dollar cost of fees over time.

Concessional contributions — the $30k cap

Concessional contributions (employer SG + salary sacrifice + personal deductible) are capped at $30,000 per year and taxed at 15% entering super — lower than most people's marginal rate, which is why salary sacrifice is effective. The Projection Calculator's "Maximise concessional" toggle automatically fills the gap between employer SG and the $30k cap each year, so you can quickly see the long-run impact without manually calculating the gap.

Carry-forward — using unused cap from prior years

If your total super balance is below $500,000 and you haven't used your full concessional cap in prior years, you can carry forward the unused space and make catch-up contributions. The unused space from each of the prior 5 financial years is available.

The calculator lets you enter the per-year unused amounts directly from ATO MyGov (Super → Unused concessional contributions cap). It depletes the oldest year's space first — the same FIFO order the ATO uses — and expires space older than 5 years. This accuracy matters: the old approach of entering a lump sum was consistently too conservative, as it assumed all space was about to expire when in reality some may have been only a year or two old.

The most precise way to model a carry-forward strategy is with Career Phases. Each phase has its own Maximise concessional toggle that overrides the global setting for that period only. This lets you model exactly the years you intend to make catch-up contributions — for example, ages 55–58 — rather than maximising for the entire projection which overstates your actual contributions.

A typical carry-forward workflow: (1) enter the unused amounts from ATO MyGov in the Assumptions card; (2) add a Career Phase covering the years you plan to make catch-up contributions; (3) enable Maximise concessional this phase on that phase; (4) check the Yearly Breakdown table — the Carry-fwd column will show the space consumed in each year of that phase, confirming the strategy is active.

Important for defined benefit members: your total super balance for ATO purposes includes the notional taxed contribution value of your defined benefit interest — typically your annual pension multiplied by 16. This can push your TSB above $500,000 even if your accumulation account is small, making you ineligible for carry-forward. Check your actual TSB in ATO MyGov rather than relying on the accumulation account balance alone.

Non-concessional contributions and the bring-forward rule

Non-concessional contributions (after-tax) are capped at $120,000 per year. The bring-forward rule allows you to front-load up to 3 years' worth — $360,000 — in a single year, at the cost of locking the NCC cap to $0 for the following 1–2 years.

The available bring-forward limit depends on your Total Super Balance at the start of the trigger year:

• TSB below $1,760,000: Full 3-year bring-forward ($360,000)
• TSB $1,760,000–$1,880,000: 2-year bring-forward ($240,000)
• TSB $1,880,000–$2,000,000: Standard annual cap only ($120,000)
• TSB at or above Transfer Balance Cap ($2,000,000): No NCC allowed

The calculator automatically computes the allowable amount from your projected TSB at the trigger age — you don't need to know the thresholds. If you enter $360,000 but your TSB projects to $1,700,000 at the trigger age, it caps your contribution at $240,000 and shows the lockout years accordingly.

Three gap metrics

The engine runs a binary search on three separate dimensions simultaneously, holding all other inputs constant including partner balance:

• Extra NCC per year: The minimum additional after-tax contribution needed annually to reach your target balance.
• Earliest retirement age: The earliest age at which your projected balance reaches the target, given current contributions.
• SG boost equivalent: The additional employer SG rate that would close the gap — useful for understanding the value of employer matching.

Bridge analysis

If you're planning to retire before preservation age (60), there's a critical question: can your non-super assets cover spending from early retirement until you can access super? The bridge analysis compares your projected non-super balance at age 60 against the total spending needed for the gap years. If the non-super balance is insufficient, the gap analysis shows a shortfall figure — giving you a concrete target for how much to build in your investment account.

What the fan chart tells you

The fan width is determined by your volatility setting and time to retirement. A very wide fan signals meaningful sensitivity to return sequence — your retirement balance has a wide range of outcomes depending on the market environment over your remaining working years. The gap analysis uses the P50 (median) projection when "Use Monte Carlo P50" is enabled, giving a probabilistically grounded view of the gap.

Glide path de-risking

If you plan to shift from a growth to a more conservative allocation as you approach retirement, the glide path linearly interpolates your return rate and volatility from today's setting to a lower endpoint at retirement. Both the deterministic and MC engines use this interpolation — later years carry lower expected returns and lower volatility, reflecting a progressively de-risked portfolio.

Strategy 1 — Income supplementation

You draw from the TRIS to top up your salary, typically to fund reduced hours. In the calculator this is straightforward: the TRIS pays its annual drawdown into your non-super account, you spend it, and your super balance is lower at retirement than it would otherwise have been. Run the projection with and without TTR enabled to see the retirement balance cost of the reduced-hours years.

Strategy 2 — Tax arbitrage (salary sacrifice recycling)

This is the strategy most financial advisers mean when they say "set up a TTR". The goal is to keep your take-home pay constant while recycling pre-tax salary into super at a lower tax rate:

1. The TRIS draws down, paying tax-free income into your non-super account.
2. You simultaneously increase salary sacrifice by a matching amount — diverting pre-tax salary into super, taxed at 15% rather than your marginal rate.
3. Your take-home pay is approximately unchanged: the TRIS income replaces the salary you sacrificed.
4. Net result: more money flows into super (from salary sacrifice), the TRIS declines slowly, and at retirement the remaining TRIS converts to ABP.

How to model this in the calculator: The TTR card models step 1 only — the TRIS drawdown flowing into your non-super account. To model the full recycling strategy you must also add a Career Phase covering the TTR years with personal concessional contributions increased to match the TRIS drawdown. For example: TRIS draws $20,000/yr, so add a Career Phase from your TTR start age to retirement and set personal concessional contributions to $20,000. The Yearly Breakdown table will then show the TRIS income column appearing alongside higher super contributions — the interaction is visible and the net impact on both balances at retirement is clear.

How the TRIS is modelled

When you enable TTR, the nominated balance is carved out of your accumulation super at the start age. The regular super then runs on the reduced balance — there is no double-counting. Each year the TRIS earns returns at the same rate as your accumulation super (same 15% earnings tax baked in), pays its mandatory drawdown as tax-free income into the non-super account, and its balance declines accordingly. At retirement the remaining TRIS balance converts to ABP and is added back to your projected super for handoff to the Retirement Readiness Calculator.

Drawdown rules

The legislated range is 4% minimum and 10% maximum of the TRIS balance, measured at the start of each year. Unlike an ABP (which has only a minimum), the 10% cap is a hard ceiling. The calculator enforces both bounds regardless of what you enter.

Monte Carlo and TTR

MC simulation paths exclude TTR. Use the deterministic (constant return) view to evaluate a TTR strategy: enable TTR, check the Yearly Breakdown and retirement balances, then disable TTR and compare. The difference in projected super and non-super at retirement is the measurable impact.

Parameters tested

• Investment return ±1.5 pp — A realistic range of market outcomes or fund choice differences.
• Personal contributions ±$5,000/yr — Salary sacrificing $5k more or less. The most directly controllable lever.
• Retirement age ±2 years — Two extra years of contributions and compounding, or two fewer.
• Starting super balance ±20% — Equivalent to consolidating lost super (upside) or discovering a liability (downside).
• Wage growth ±1 pp — Affects how SG contributions grow as salary increases.

How to use it

The sort order is the most useful output. If the investment return bar is twice as wide as the wage growth bar, improving your investment strategy matters twice as much as chasing salary growth — at the standard shock sizes. Use the diagram as a triage tool: focus your attention on whichever lever shows the widest bar. Detailed exploration of a specific lever belongs in the main projection (change the input, watch the chart update in real time).

CSV export

The Export CSV button downloads a year-by-year spreadsheet of your projection. Each row is one year from today to retirement. Columns include: calendar year, age, salary, employer SG, personal concessional contributions (effective and any wasted amount), carry-forward used and available, contributions tax, Div 293 and Div 296 tax, non-concessional contributions, lump sums, downsizer, bring-forward contribution and lockout status, government co-contribution, other income received (including any TTR income), investment return, fees, super balance, return rate, and CPI rate. When non-super investments are enabled, non-super return, non-super balance, and total balance columns are added. In couple mode, five columns for your partner (age, salary, SG, personal CC, super balance) are appended. A summary block at the bottom totals contributions, taxes, fees, investment growth, other income received, and projected balances at retirement.

Scenario save / load / export

The Save/Load button lets you save named projection scenarios to your browser and restore them later. Use to compare different contribution strategies side by side. JSON export saves your full input state as a portable file for permanent backup or transfer between devices.

Parametric vs Historical Monte Carlo

Parametric Monte Carlo generates synthetic return sequences using your expected return and volatility settings (lognormal distribution). It can model an unlimited number of scenarios. The drawback is results depend on your assumptions.

Historical Monte Carlo samples directly from verified historical return data — Australian balanced funds (1990–2024), Australian equities (1980–2024), and US S&P 500 (1928–2025). These are returns that actually happened — including the Great Depression, 1970s stagflation, the Dot-com crash, and the GFC. For serious retirement planning, Historical Monte Carlo (block bootstrap method) is the most credible analysis available.

The percentile bands

• P10 (worst 10%) — The uncomfortable question: can you live with this? This is your planning number — not P50.
• P50 (median) — Half of simulations did better, half did worse. Still a coin flip between better and worse.
• P90 (best 10%) — A lucky scenario. Do not build your retirement around this line.

Target success rates

• 90%+ — Excellent. Worth checking whether you're enjoying enough.
• 85–90% — Very good. Most planners consider this acceptable.
• 75–85% — Moderate. Small spending adjustments can shift this significantly.
• Below 75% — Needs material changes: spending cuts, later retirement, or part-time income.

What the colours mean

• Blue — Main super: Your primary drawdown. Dominant in early retirement.
• Orange — Sequencing buffer: Draws down early in retirement if you have a buffer configured.
• Dark green — Age Pension: Watch for this growing as super depletes.
• Medium green — Defined Benefit / Annuity: Stable income floor. A large segment here is a powerful safety net.
• Light green — Other income: Part-time work, rental, etc.

Healthy vs concerning patterns

Healthy — Gradual Transition: In early retirement, bars dominated by blue (super). Over time, dark green (Age Pension) grows to fill the gap. By late retirement, Age Pension and defined benefit cover most spending.

Warning — Blue Disappears Abruptly: If the blue super bar disappears suddenly in mid-retirement, super ran out. Check what fills the gap.

Investigate — Heavy Age Pension from Day One: Your super balance may be lower than ideal relative to spending. Your lifestyle is exposed to any policy changes to the Age Pension.

What a large ending balance means

• You may be spending too little — you could afford more, retire earlier, or give more to family now.
• Your return assumptions may be optimistic — check P10 before concluding you're over-saving.
• You have a legacy goal — a large ending balance is intentional.

Finding your sustainable spending level

The "Find sustainable spending" tool answers the central question directly: how much can I actually afford to spend? The Monte Carlo result is most meaningful: the maximum spending where a chosen percentage of simulated futures still end successfully. The gap between the deterministic and MC figures is itself informative — a wide gap indicates high sensitivity to sequence-of-returns risk.

Pattern A: "Cliff Edge" — Good Until It Isn't

Portfolio holds steady for 15–20 years, then drops sharply to zero. Diagnosis: Spending slightly too high relative to super, or Age Pension not being modelled.

Pattern B: "Good Middle, Rough Ends" — The Monte Carlo Fan

P50 fine, P90 very comfortable, but P10 runs out 10–12 years early. Diagnosis: Sound in average conditions but vulnerable to a bad run early. Solutions: add a sequencing buffer, enable guardrails, or hold 1–2 years of spending in cash at retirement.

Pattern C: "Survivor" — Large Surplus Despite Stress Tests

All formal tests succeed, P10 positive, ending balance very large. Diagnosis: Ask: if I increased spending by $15–20k, does the plan still pass A1 and B1? If yes, consider spending more.

Pattern D: "Works on Paper, Fails Under Stress" — The Brittle Plan

A1 (base case) succeeds, but B1 (crash) and B2 (bear market) fail, and MC success rate is below 80%. Diagnosis: Reduce spending, add a sequencing buffer, or delay retirement by 1–2 years.

What the grid shows

A 7×5 grid. Rows represent return rates — your current setting ±3 percentage points. Columns represent spending at 80%, 90%, 100%, 110%, and 120% of your base. Each cell shows the ending balance, or "Depleted yr X" if the portfolio ran out.

Important limitations

No market volatility. Each cell uses a constant return — not an average with good and bad years around it. A plan that looks green in the grid can still fail in Monte Carlo due to a bad early run. Use both tools together.

The asset test

For homeowners, the full pension begins below $321,500 (single) or $481,500 (couple), and cuts out at $722,000 (single) or $1,085,000 (couple). The pension reduces by $3 per fortnight for every $1,000 above the lower threshold.

The income test and deeming

Centrelink applies deeming rates to your financial assets, assuming they earn a set rate regardless of actual returns. Current rates: 1.25% on the first $64,200 (singles; $106,200 for couples) and 3.25% above that. The deemed income is then tested against free areas; above the threshold, the pension reduces by 50 cents per dollar.

For defined benefit pension holders, Centrelink applies a deductible amount before assessing your pension income — reducing the taxable portion based on your contribution history. The calculator models this through the Income test deductible amount field in the income section. See the Defined benefit pensions article for details.

Natural increase over time

The Age Pension tends to increase its share of your income floor as retirement progresses — not because the payment grows, but because your super depletes and assessed assets fall below the cutoff. Many retirees receive little or no pension in early retirement but a significant pension by their mid-80s.

Age Pension income test — deductible amount

When Services Australia applies the income test to your DB pension, they first reduce your assessable pension income by a deductible amount — a figure calculated from your personal contribution history. Without it, the calculator assesses your full pension against the income test, which tends to understate your Age Pension entitlement.

In the Retirement Calculator, enter your deductible amount in the Income test deductible amount field, which appears below the pension income field once you have entered a pension amount. In the Retirement Manager, it appears inline on each income stream when you mark the stream as a defined benefit pension.

Services Australia calculates your specific deductible amount when you apply for the Age Pension — you can also request it in advance from your fund or Services Australia. Leave it at $0 if unknown; the result will be a conservative estimate.

The deductible amount is entered in today's dollars and does not CPI-index in the model (consistent with how Services Australia applies it as a fixed nominal reduction).

The base spending pattern

Constant Real maintains the same purchasing power each year. J.P. Morgan Curve applies gradually declining real spending based on Blanchett (2014) and J.P. Morgan (2024) research — real spending declines ~1% per year in the first decade, ~1.5% in years 11–20, and ~0.5% in years 21+. This is the default and generally more realistic.

Modifier 1 — Forgo inflation adjustment

In any year following a negative portfolio return, nominal spending stays flat rather than receiving the usual CPI increase. Morningstar 2025 found this lifts the safe withdrawal rate from 3.9% to 4.3% at a 90% success threshold.

Modifier 2 — Guardrails (Guyton-Klinger)

Dynamically adjusts spending when your withdrawal rate drifts from the initial rate. If the portfolio grows faster than spending, spending increases. If the portfolio falls behind, spending is cut. Morningstar 2025 found guardrails support a 5.2% starting safe withdrawal rate at 90% success.

Formal stress tests (A1–H1)

• A1 Base Case — 6.5% return, 35-year horizon.
• B1 Low Returns — 4% return. Tests a permanently lower-for-longer environment.
• C1 Market Crash — 30% crash in year 1, then recovery.
• D1 Extreme Longevity — 45-year horizon to age 105.
• E1 High Volatility — Normal returns with significantly higher variance.
• F1 High Inflation — 4.5% CPI.
• G1 Health Shock — Sudden large expense in year 3.
• H1 Worst Case — Combines multiple adverse factors simultaneously.

Historical periods

Replay actual market periods against your portfolio: the GFC (2008), COVID (2020), 1929 Depression, Dot-com bust, 1970s stagflation, and more. Unlike Monte Carlo, these show exactly what would have happened to your plan during specific historical events.

The two modelling approaches

Probabilistic (recommended with Monte Carlo) uses age-based entry probabilities from ABS mortality tables. Each run independently determines whether — and at what age — care is entered.

Deterministic applies a fixed entry age. Every simulation enters aged care at exactly that age. Useful for stress-testing a specific scenario.

Cost components

RAD (Refundable Accommodation Deposit) — a lump sum paid on entry, fully refunded to your estate on exit. It is a capital tie-up, not a permanent cost. Default: $400,000.

Annual ongoing costs — basic daily fee plus means-tested care fee. Not refundable. Default: $65,000/yr, indexed to CPI.

CSV export

Downloads a year-by-year spreadsheet of your simulation results. Use when you want to build your own charts in Excel, share raw numbers with a financial adviser, or archive a point-in-time snapshot. The CSV includes: year, calendar year, age, account balances (main super, sequencing buffer, cash, non-super), spending, income breakdown (DB pension, Age Pension, other income), withdrawal detail (super, buffer, cash, non-super), aged care costs and RAD, debt balance and payments, guardrail status, and CPI and return rates. In couple mode, partner ages, super balances, and pension amounts are added as extra columns.

Word export

Generates a formatted .docx report containing your key inputs, Executive Summary metrics, Monte Carlo results (if run), and chart images. Designed to be shared with a financial adviser or kept as a planning record.

Scenario save / load / export

The Save/Load feature lets you save named scenarios to your browser and restore them later. JSON export saves your inputs as a portable file for permanent backup or transferring between devices.

Stochastic irregular expenses

Generates probabilistic paths for irregular costs across four categories with age-dependent timing: transport (vehicle replacement ~every 10 years), housing (roof/HVAC cycles), medical (dental, hearing aids), and home modifications. Expected range: ~$7–10k/year median, ~$12–16k/year at the 90th percentile.

Manual one-off expenses

For specific planned expenditures at known ages — a gift to family, a major overseas trip, a renovation. Amounts are entered in nominal (future) dollars.

Windfalls

One-off receipts added to your non-super account — inheritance, compensation, gifts. Amounts are in nominal (future) dollars at the age received.

Year 1 anchoring

Year 1 of the simulation starts when the first partner retires. The second partner continues earning pre-retirement income until their own retirement age. If Partner 1 retires at 60 and Partner 2 at 65, Year 1 has Partner 1 already retired while Partner 2 is still working.

Death scenario modelling

Three options: Both Alive (default, death ages ignored); Partner 1 Dies (super transfers, pension reverts, spending drops to single rate, Age Pension switches to single rates); Partner 2 Dies (same logic reversed).

Age Pension for couples

• Both under 67 — no Age Pension
• One partner 67+, the other under — eligible partner receives the member-of-couple rate
• Both 67+ — couple rate, split 50/50 in individual charts
• After a partner dies — survivor receives the single rate

Comprehensive Analysis

The "🎯 Run Comprehensive Analysis" button runs both parametric Monte Carlo (1,000 simulations) and all formal stress tests in a single operation, saving the combined result as a scenario. Takes 5–10 seconds but gives a complete risk picture in one click.

Useful parameters to vary

• Super balance — test the impact of higher or lower starting balances
• Base spending — compare more frugal vs more generous lifestyle spending
• Retirement age — compare retiring at 60 vs 63 vs 65
• Defined benefit income — model different pension amounts or no pension
• Return assumption — compare optimistic vs conservative investment assumptions

How to use it

Click any Quick add preset to add a scenario instantly. Up to four additional scenarios can be shown alongside the current settings line. To remove a scenario, click × on its chip. To build a custom scenario, click + Custom… and choose which parameter to vary and by how much.

The chart shows total portfolio balance (super + non-super) on the Y axis and age on the X axis. The dashed vertical line marks your configured death age — the planning horizon. A scenario line that ends before the death age has depleted the portfolio at that point.

Available presets

• Spend $20k more / less — shifts annual spending up or down by $20,000
• +1% / −1% return — raises or lowers the flat return assumption by 1 percentage point
• Live to 100 — extends the simulation horizon to age 100
• Bear market year 1 — applies a −20% return in the first retirement year then reverts to your configured rate, modelling sequence-of-returns risk at the worst possible moment

Custom scenarios

The + Custom… form lets you set any specific value for four parameters:

• Spending — an exact dollar amount per year
• Return rate — an exact percentage p.a.
• Live to age — extend the horizon to any age beyond your current death age setting
• Balance ±% — increase or decrease the starting portfolio balance by a percentage (useful for modelling a market correction at retirement)

Scenario names are optional — leave blank and a description is auto-generated from the parameter values.

What the chart shows

All lines use deterministic (constant-return) simulation with spending fixed at your current configured level. Stochastic non-recurring expenses and stochastic mortality are excluded so every line starts from the same point and differences reflect only the parameter being varied. The summary table below the chart shows the depletion age and final balance for each scenario.

If running out of money too soon

• Reduce spending — even $5–10k/year can materially shift success rates.
• Delay retirement — each extra year adds contributions and reduces the drawdown period.
• Add part-time income — even a few years of modest income significantly reduces early portfolio pressure.
• Enable guardrails — dynamic spending cuts in bad years can lift success rates by several percentage points.

If too much is left over

• Increase base spending or add a splurge decade
• Model a bequest — enter a target ending balance in the "Find sustainable spending" tool
• Consider whether your portfolio is working hard enough — review asset allocation

Post-tax returns — the most important input

Super in pension phase earns returns completely tax-free. Non-super investments generate taxable income. A rough guide: at a 19% marginal rate, a 7% gross return becomes approximately 5.7% after tax. At 32.5%, the same return becomes approximately 4.7%. Enter the return you expect to receive net of tax.

Drawdown order

• Non-super first — spend the investment account before touching super. Common for early retirees bridging to preservation age.
• Super first — preserve the non-super account as long as possible.
• Proportional — draw from both simultaneously in proportion to current balances.

Age Pension interaction — the most important consideration

Your principal residence was previously exempt from the assets test. After the sale, those proceeds become assessable financial assets regardless of where they end up. If you sell and do not buy another home, your assets test threshold rises significantly (homeowner to non-homeowner). The calculator models this switch automatically.

Income (no account drained)

Money flowing in that doesn't deplete a balance: Age Pension and any defined-benefit pensions or annuities you've added under Other income. These cover the first portion of your spending need.

Account outflows (legislated + recommended)

Money you must or should pull out of your accounts. ABP min drawdown comes first because the law forces it. ABP additional, super accumulation, cash, and shares follow in the engine's priority order. Each row is the dollar amount the Manager recommends you actually move out of that account over the year.

Spending and reconciliation

Your total spending need for the year. If income + outflows exceed spending, the surplus goes to your cash float (Centrelink or super fund payments often arrive in regular instalments — the engine doesn't care about timing within the year, just the totals). If outflows can't cover the gap, a shortfall warning appears in red.

Where does the base spending figure come from?

The base spending row always reflects the amount currently set in the Spending card — entered in today's dollars. It is not taken from the previous year's actual spending, and it is not adjusted by CPI or the JP Morgan curve for Year 1. Those adjustments only affect future years in the portfolio balance projection (Years 2 and beyond).

This means the Spending card is a living input, not a set-and-forget figure from when you retired. Five years into retirement, the cashflow plan will still show whatever the Spending card says — if your real spending has grown with inflation, the card should reflect that. The spending variance nudge (the amber banner above the cashflow plan) prompts you to update it whenever your recorded actuals differ materially from the projection.

Why the latest row matters

The most recent ledger row becomes the projection's starting state. You can edit the balances in the left-hand Accounts panel, but those edits only affect the projection when no actuals exist. As soon as you record an actual, the ledger is the source of truth — the Accounts panel is for defining what an account is (ABP vs cash vs shares, label), not for tracking its current balance.

Adding past years doesn't change anything

Adding a row for an earlier FY (one that's not the latest) doesn't change the projection. The earlier row goes into the trend chart and lets you see your variance over time, but only the latest row drives the simulation forward.

Annual review workflow

The intended rhythm is once per year, at the end of each financial year:

1. Record your end-of-year account balances and actual spending in the ledger. These become the new starting state for the projection.
2. Check the spending variance nudge. If your actual spending differed materially from the projected amount, decide whether this reflects a genuine change in your spending pattern or a one-off.
3. If it's structural, update the Spending card to reflect your actual current spending. The projection and cashflow plan will immediately recalculate from the new base.
4. If the recommendation is stale, click Recompute to refresh the solver against your updated balances and spending.

One-off variances (a car purchase, a large medical expense) don't need a spending update — the account balances already reflect the money going out, and the projection runs forward from that lower starting point automatically.

Goals

Each goal has a type, a target balance, a target age, and a confidence threshold. Four types:

• Balance at age — "I want at least $X at age Y"
• Funded event — same shape, separate label for clarity (e.g. "aged-care RAD fund")
• Estate target — "leave at least $X to the kids"
• Don't run out before age — survive to age Y with positive balance, no specific dollar target

The confidence threshold is the percentage of Monte Carlo paths that must satisfy the goal. 85% means "in 85 out of 100 randomised market futures, this goal is met." Higher thresholds give a more conservative recommended spend.

The binding goal

When multiple goals are active, one of them sets the limit — the rest are met with margin to spare. The solver flags this as the binding constraint (◆). To spend more, you'd need to relax that specific goal. The other goals having higher achieved probabilities is informational, not actionable.

No goals defined

If you haven't added any goals, the solver defaults to "portfolio survives the horizon (currentAge → 100) at 85% confidence." That gives a useful starting number without forcing you to specify everything.

The three priority levels

Each category carries one of three priorities:

• Essential — non-negotiable costs you must cover regardless of market conditions: mortgage/rent, utilities, food, insurance, healthcare. The sum of all essential categories becomes the solver's spending floor — the minimum the recommendation will never go below, and the starting point for the binary search.
• Discretionary — spending you value but could reduce under pressure: dining, hobbies, subscriptions, local travel. These are funded after essentials.
• Aspirational — stretch goals that enhance life but could be deferred: overseas holidays, gifts to family, a boat. Funded last, and most likely to show as "at risk" or "unfunded."

How categories interact with the headline figures

As soon as you add at least one category, the categories take over from the manual inputs:

• The Current annual spending field is replaced by the sum of all category amounts.
• The Essential spending floor field is replaced by the sum of essential-priority categories.
• Any manually entered values in those fields are ignored while categories exist.

This means the recommendation solver's floor automatically tracks your essential categories — you don't need to keep the two inputs in sync.

Category status — locked in, at risk, unfunded

Click Analyse categories in the Recommendation panel to run a Monte Carlo probe at each cumulative spending level. The engine works through your categories in priority order — essential first, then discretionary, then aspirational — and at each step asks: "if this is the total I'm spending, what fraction of simulated futures end with money intact?"

• Locked in (≥95% survival) — the portfolio survives to the horizon with high confidence at this cumulative spending level. You can treat this category as reliable.
• At risk (≥50% survival) — the portfolio survives in most but not all futures. This category will likely be covered, but a sustained market downturn could threaten it.
• Unfunded (<50% survival) — more than half of simulated futures run out before the horizon at this cumulative spending level. This category is aspirational in the financial sense: nice if markets cooperate, not something to depend on.

How categories affect the recommendation solver

The solver uses the essential total as its floor — the spending level tested first for infeasibility. It uses 2× the total category sum as part of its ceiling calculation, ensuring it always explores above your current spending level. The binary search then finds the maximum total spending where all goals are met at their confidence thresholds.

When you run Spending tiers alongside categories, each tier (Conservative 95%, Comfortable 85%, Maximum 70%) overrides all goal confidence thresholds for that tier's solve. This produces meaningfully different recommended totals across the three tiers — without categories, the tiers only differ when no goals are defined.

Practical workflow

A typical setup takes five minutes:

1. Add essential categories first (rates, utilities, food, insurance, healthcare). These set your floor.
2. Add discretionary categories (restaurants, hobbies, subscriptions). Aim to match your actual spending patterns.
3. Add aspirational categories last (international travel, gifting, large purchases). These are the first to be flagged as at risk.
4. Click Analyse categories to see where the funded/unfunded line falls.
5. Click Compute in the Recommendation panel to get a goal-based maximum total spend, then compare it to your total categories.

Export CSV ↓ — year-by-year projection

Downloads the simulated projection as a spreadsheet. Columns include: calendar year, age, account balances (ABP super, accumulation super, cash and buffer, non-super shares), income (DB pension, Age Pension, other income), spending and one-off expenses, withdrawals by source, aged care costs and RAD, debt balance and payments, return rate, CPI rate, and guardrail status. In couple mode, partner super and pension columns are appended. A summary block at the bottom shows the scenario name, final balance, depletion age (if any), and configured spending. Values are in nominal dollars.

Export Ledger ↓ — actuals history

Downloads your recorded check-in entries as a spreadsheet — one row per financial year. Columns are: financial year, your age at 30 June, a column for each account (using its configured label), total balance across all accounts, actual spending, actual Age Pension received, and any notes you recorded. Cells are blank (not zero) where a balance wasn't recorded for that FY, so you can distinguish missing data from a genuinely zero balance. The button is greyed out until at least one check-in row exists.

Backup ↓ — full JSON backup

Exports the entire Manager store as a JSON file — all your inputs, accounts, goals, expenses, income streams, ledger entries, and settings. Use this for permanent backup or to transfer your setup between devices. Restore by clicking Import on the same toolbar. The projection and ledger CSVs are human-readable; the JSON backup is a machine-readable snapshot for restore purposes.

Project (default)

The engine means-tests your Age Pension every year of the projection — applying the assets test (using your projected balances), the income test (deeming your financial assets at the current threshold), and taking the binding constraint. As your balances draw down over time, your AP rises automatically.

Pin Centrelink figure (year 0 only)

If your most recent Centrelink statement shows an AP rate that doesn't match the engine's estimate (different deeming applied to your specific assets, work bonus banked, accommodation supplement, etc.), pin mode lets you override the year-1 figure with the exact dollar amount you receive. Enter the fortnightly figure for you and (if applicable) your partner.

From year 2 onward, the engine reverts to means-testing — pinning forever would be wrong because your balances change as you draw down. The pin is a one-year correction, not a permanent override.

Why would I do this?

Two reasons dominate:

• Tax efficiency. Shares held in your own name attract income tax on dividends and CGT on gains. Super accumulation earnings are taxed at 15% (or 0% in pension phase). By gradually selling shares and contributing the proceeds to super, you shift future investment earnings into a lower-tax environment. The benefit compounds over time — a 1–2% annual return difference sustained for a decade is material.
• Sequencing risk management. Holding cash from a systematic sell-down can serve as a spending buffer, insulating your super from being forced to sell at depressed prices in a bad market year. The engine's default drawdown order already draws from cash before super — so routing sell-down proceeds to cash directly feeds this buffer.

Cash destination vs super destination

Choose where the annual proceeds land:

• Cash buffer — proceeds go into the cash pool, which earns at the cash return rate and is the first source of funds when your spending exceeds income. This is the simpler strategy: sell shares, park the money as cash, spend it. It also reduces the non-super account (and its associated tax drag) faster.
• Super (accumulation) — proceeds go into the super accumulation pool, which earns at the full investment return rate with no tax drag applied. These funds then enter the normal drawdown waterfall: spent only after the ABP and cash are depleted. This maximises the time assets spend inside the concessional tax environment.

How the engine processes it

Each year the sell-down is active, the engine runs in this order:

1. Sell the configured annual amount (CPI-adjusted, capped at the remaining portfolio balance) from the non-super account.
2. Add the proceeds to either the cash account or the super accumulation pool.
3. Then run the normal spending withdrawal — so the transferred proceeds are available to fund spending in the same year.

Because the sell-down happens before withdrawal, routing proceeds to cash can reduce or eliminate voluntary draws from super in that year — super stays compounding for longer. Routing to super achieves the same compounding benefit but through a different path.

The cashflow plan shows a "Portfolio transfer" section between the income and outflows sections whenever a sell-down occurs, so you can see the exact dollar amount transferred each year.

Interaction with the Age Pension means test

The Age Pension assessment happens after the sell-down in each simulated year. That means:

• The non-super balance (an assessable asset) decreases.
• The cash or super accumulation balance (also assessable) increases by the same amount.
• Total assessable assets are unchanged in the year of transfer.

Over time, the composition of assets shifts — less in non-super, more in super. If you're between ages 60–67 with a partner under pension age, some of the super accumulation may be exempt from the assets test, which could lift your Age Pension. The engine applies this exemption automatically when the accumulation super is attributed to the partner who is under 67 (see the Assumptions page for the single-pool attribution caveat).

Setting the end age

Leave end age blank to sell until the portfolio is depleted. Set a specific end age if you want the strategy to wind up at a defined point — for example, stop selling at 75 when your non-super balance is likely to be much lower anyway, or stop when you expect to enter aged care. The engine never sells more than the remaining balance, so there's no risk of an overdraft; it simply sells less in the final year and stops thereafter.

Interaction with dividend yield

If you've set a dividend yield on your shares accounts, the sell-down and dividend mechanics interact cleanly. In any year where the sell-down is active, the engine first sells the configured amount from the non-super balance, then applies the return (net of yield and tax drag) to the remaining balance. Dividends in that year are calculated on the post-sell-down balance — they'll be slightly lower each year as the portfolio shrinks. This is realistic: once you've sold a parcel of shares, you stop receiving dividends on them.

How to activate it

Open the Profile card in the left panel. Below the partner fields, select which partner dies first and set the age. The projection recalculates immediately. A purple banner in the right panel confirms the scenario is active so you never mistake a survivor projection for the baseline.

The death age defaults to 80 — a useful stress-test age for couples where one partner is in their 60s. Adjust it to model different longevity assumptions: an earlier age (70–75) tests the worst-case financial impact; a later age (85–90) tests a more optimistic but still realistic scenario.

What changes in the projection

From the specified death age onwards the engine switches to single-person mode for the surviving partner. Several things happen simultaneously:

• Income streams marked “partner's income” cease or revert to their configured survivor fraction. A DB pension with 67% reversion, for example, drops to 67% of its original amount from that year.
• Age Pension is reassessed as a single person — the singles rate and asset/income thresholds apply. This often increases the Age Pension if the couple was previously over the couple assets threshold.
• The spending model continues at your configured base spending. If the surviving partner intends to spend less, update the Spending card accordingly before comparing.
• The surviving partner's account balances continue from whatever the projection had at the death age — no estate split or bequest is modelled.

Income streams and survivor fractions

The survivor fraction is set per income stream under Other income. A typical CSS/PSS reversionary pension is 67%. The fraction only activates when a survivor scenario is running — the both-alive projection always uses the full stream amount. Check each income stream's “partner's income” toggle and survivor fraction before running a survivor scenario to ensure they reflect your actual entitlements.

Using the scenario for planning

Compare the both-alive and survivor projections side by side. Key questions to examine: Does the survivor's portfolio still last to age 95? Does the reduction in income push the Age Pension up enough to offset the lost pension income? Is the gap between both-alive and survivor spending large enough to warrant life insurance?

The what-if comparison panel can run a reduced spending level alongside the survivor scenario if you want to model voluntary lifestyle adjustment after bereavement.