Probabilistic entry
Each simulation path draws ONE uniform random value and compares it each year against a cumulative entry-probability curve (inverse-transform sampling of the entry age). The curve is calibrated to Australian residential aged care data — not to mortality tables: it yields a 41.9% lifetime probability of entering permanent residential care from age 65, a median entry age of 85, and 54.8% of entries at 85 or older. Published benchmarks: 39–46% lifetime (Cooper-Stanbury 2025 puts females at 46%; the AIHW death-linkage study found 43% of decedents aged 65+ had used permanent care), median admission age 85 and ~54% of admissions at 85+ (AIHW/GEN).
Who enters care
Aged care is modelled as a PER-PERSON health event, evaluated independently for each partner. It does not depend on the death scenario. In deterministic mode you set an entry age for each person and tick who to model — either partner, both, or neither. In probabilistic mode both partners are assessed independently against the incidence curve, with separate draws, so their care histories differ.
Stay duration
In deterministic mode the stay is exactly the length you set. In probabilistic mode with death in care enabled, that figure is the AVERAGE stay: each year of a stay carries a mortality hazard of 1/duration, so stays are right-skewed — most are shorter than the figure you set, a minority run considerably longer, and the mean matches your input. A fixed length for every resident put every death at the same age and shifted the median simulation run by more than a decade.
Entry is one-way
A person who leaves residential care does not re-enter, and pays only one Refundable Accommodation Deposit. Permanent residential care is not a state people cycle in and out of.
Death in aged care
Optional. In deterministic mode the resident dies at the end of the modelled stay — a definite outcome for a scenario you specified. In probabilistic mode each year of the stay carries the mortality hazard above, so deaths spread across the stay; with a 1/duration hazard almost everyone who enters care dies there, which is what the setting is intended to express. A death in care applies the same consequences as any other death: super transfers to the survivor, the defined benefit pension drops to the reversionary rate, and household spending moves to the single level. NOT applied when the projection is set to have neither partner die — care still occurs and its costs still apply, but nobody dies.
Not differentiated
Entry probability does not vary by sex, living arrangement or health status. Women enter residential care more often and stay longer than the population average this curve represents.
Deterministic entry
Entry age set per person by the user. Used in non-MC scenarios. Note that with the PROBABILISTIC approach selected, a single (non-Monte-Carlo) projection uses the median draw of 0.5, so it shows care beginning at age 90 — the age at which cumulative incidence first exceeds 50%. The full spread of outcomes is visible only in Monte Carlo.
RAD (Refundable Accommodation Deposit)
Withdrawn from super at entry as a lump sum. Refunded on exit LESS the provider retention introduced by the Aged Care Act 2024 for entries from 1 November 2025: 2% per year calculated on the declining balance, capped at 5 years — so a five-year stay returns 90.4% of the deposit (9.6% retained), not the flat 10% often quoted. Residents who entered before 1 November 2025 are grandfathered as fully refundable; every entry this planner models is post-reform. The refund is returned in nominal dollars, so a long stay also erodes its real value. Default: $400,000.
Annual ongoing costs
Basic daily fee plus means-tested care fee, applied PER PERSON in care. Not refundable; indexed to CPI. Default: $65,000/yr. National median residential stay: approximately 3 years.
Income streams after a death
Each additional income stream belongs to one partner, and you set what share of it continues once that person dies — 100% for income that passes to the survivor in full, 0% for income that simply stops, or a reversionary fraction in between. The default is 100%, which is NOT right for every stream: a UK State Pension under the post-2016 new State Pension rules generally cannot be inherited by a spouse, and many overseas and private pensions end with the recipient. Check your own scheme rather than assuming the income continues. Only applies when a death is modelled.
Care at home (Support at Home)
Optional. Models the participant contribution for aged care delivered at home, which is the far more common path — of Australians who died aged 65+, around 80% had used aged care and 84% entered through a home-based program (AIHW). Clinical care is free; independence services cost 5% to 50% of the service price and everyday living services 17.5% to 80%, on a sliding scale set by an income and assets test. That scale is the Age Pension means-test reduction divided by the reduction that would apply at the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card income limit, so rates move with your balances through the projection. Rates match the My Aged Care fee estimator. You enter the annual VALUE of services (government spending averaged about $29,800 per package in 2024-25), the clinical share, and the everyday-living share of the rest.
Care at home — per person and limits
Assessed per person: each partner has their own start age, duration, service value and lifetime cap, and partner 2 is opt-in because needing care is not inherited. Costs are ADDED to spending with no offsetting reduction — the person still lives at home, unlike residential care. Contributions stop at a lifetime cap ($137,917.01 at 20 March 2026, indexed) shared with the non-clinical care contribution in residential aged care, and stop entirely once that person enters residential care. KNOWN LIMITATIONS: timing is deterministic, so Monte Carlo varies the cost of care but never whether or when it happens; the means figures are assessed from the previous year's position; income from additional income streams is not yet included in that assessment, which understates the rate for someone whose income comes mainly from those streams; and if someone leaves residential care alive within their home care window, the contribution resumes.
Paying for the room
You choose how the accommodation is paid: a refundable deposit (RAD), a daily accommodation payment (DAP), or a combination. The daily payment is derived from the room price at the government's Maximum Permissible Interest Rate (MPIR), which is 8.43% from 1 July 2026: DAP per day = room price × MPIR ÷ 365. The rate is FIXED on the day a resident enters care and does not change for the rest of their stay, so the daily payment is a flat nominal amount that inflation erodes over a long stay. A deposit is refunded less the provider retention; a daily payment is never refunded.
Age Pension treatment of the deposit
A refundable deposit balance IS an asset (Social Security Act 1991 s 11(3AA)), but it is expressly excluded from the definition of 'financial investment' (s 9(1D)(c)-(d)) so it is NOT subject to deeming, and its value is disregarded when calculating assessable assets (s 1118(1)(v)). The model reproduces this without special-casing: assessable assets are derived from your actual portfolio balances, so paying a deposit removes that money from both the assets test and deeming, while choosing the daily payment leaves it invested where both apply. For a part-pensioner this can matter more than the interest rate does — run your scenario both ways.
Household spending while in care
Derived each year from who is in care. Both at home: your base spending. One partner in care and one at home: the person-at-home rate (default 70%) plus that person's care costs. BOTH in care, or a single person in care: the nobody-at-home rate (default 15%) plus care costs for each — nobody is living at home, but rates, insurance and maintenance continue. That second figure decides how much a second person entering care really costs: at 15% their care fees are largely offset by the drop in home spending, so raise it if you would keep and maintain the home. Both rates are settings, not fixed assumptions.