Assumptions & methodology

RetireConfident is a planning tool, not a financial product. Understanding what the model assumes — and where it simplifies reality — is essential for interpreting your results.

Last updated: May 2026 · Age Pension rates current to 20 March 2026 indexation

Accumulation engine

Architecture
Year-by-year simulation from current age to retirement age. Each year: select career phase → apply wage growth → calculate employer SG → calculate concessional contributions (with carry-forward) → apply 15% contributions tax → apply Div 293 → apply NCCs and bring-forward → apply investment return (interpolated if glide path) → deduct fees → apply Div 296 → grow non-super account.
Contribution timing convention
Contributions are applied before the investment return each year (start-of-year convention). This means contributions earn a full year's return in the year they are made. The mid-year convention — where contributions arrive evenly throughout the year and earn approximately half a year's return — would be marginally more accurate for monthly payroll and quarterly SG cycles, but the difference is small relative to the opening balance and is a common simplification in annual projection models.
Career phases
Multiple phases can be defined, each with a start age, salary, SG rate, and contribution amounts. The engine selects the phase with the highest start age ≤ current age each year. Wage growth is applied from the phase's start age.
Concessional cap
$30,000/yr (2025–26). Employer SG plus personal concessional. If contributions exceed the cap, the excess is counted as NCCs. Maximise concessional option automatically tops up to the cap minus employer SG each year. ⚠ Model limitation: the cap is held at the 2025–26 value for the first year and then projected forward using a fixed long-run AWOTE rate of 3.5% p.a. in $2,500 increments — consistent with RBA and Treasury long-run estimates. This is independent of the user's personal wage growth setting. In practice the cap rises by government decision and may not match this projection in any given year.
Carry-forward
Unused concessional cap from the prior 5 financial years, available when TSB < $500,000. User enters per-year amounts from ATO MyGov. The engine depletes oldest years first (FIFO). Entries older than 5 years at simulation start are discarded.
Contributions tax
15% flat rate on all concessional contributions. Applied before balance update.
Division 293
Additional 15% tax on concessional contributions if income (salary + concessional) exceeds $250,000. User selects whether deducted from super or paid from other income. The $250,000 threshold is legislatively frozen — there is no indexation mechanism — and has been unchanged since 2012. The model treats it as permanently static, which is correct under current law.
Non-concessional cap (NCC)
$120,000/yr (2025–26). Regular NCC and lump-sum contributions share this cap. Bring-forward contributions override this cap in the trigger year. The NCC cap, bring-forward cap ($360k), and all TSB-relative bring-forward thresholds are derived from the projected concessional cap (NCC = 4× CC) and Transfer Balance Cap, and rise with them over the projection using the same fixed AWOTE and CPI rates.
Bring-forward rule
Allows up to 3 years' NCC cap in a single trigger year. Allowable limit gated by TSB at trigger age: full 3-year ($360k) if TSB < $1,760,000; 2-year ($240k) if TSB < $1,880,000; standard 1-year ($120k) if TSB < $2,000,000; $0 if TSB ≥ Transfer Balance Cap ($2,000,000). NCC cap locked to $0 for 1 year (2-year bring-forward) or 2 years (3-year bring-forward) after the trigger.
Downsizer contribution
One-off, exempt from NCC cap. Available from age 55. Capped at $300,000 per person. Applied to super in the trigger year before the investment return step.
Government co-contribution
ATO matches 50c per $1 of NCC up to $500/year. Full $500 if income ≤ $47,488; phases out linearly to zero at $62,488 (2025–26 thresholds, indexed annually). Applied automatically when eligible.
Division 296
Enacted, effective 1 July 2026: tiered additional tax on notional super earnings. Extra 15% on earnings attributable to TSB above $3M (combined 30%); extra 25% on earnings attributable to TSB above $10M (combined 40%). Thresholds CPI-indexed. Marked with disclaimer in the UI.
Investment return
Applied to the post-contribution, pre-fee balance. Flat rate when glide path off; linearly interpolated from start to end rate when on (lerp). Same interpolation applied to MC volatility.
Fund fees
Three components deducted after investment return: (1) investment fee (% of post-return balance); (2) flat annual admin fee ($); (3) insurance premium ($). All default to $0.
Non-super account
Grows at the user's specified post-tax return rate. Same lognormal z-value as super in MC runs (correlated returns). Annual contribution added each year before return.

Projection Monte Carlo

Distribution
Lognormal draws using Box-Muller transform. Mean = (expectedReturn/100 − σ²/2), σ = volatility/100 per year.
Glide path in MC
Per-year μ and σ interpolated between start and end values using the same lerp as the deterministic engine.
Correlation
Super and non-super use the same z-value per year — positively correlated but not identical returns.
Output
P10/P25/P50/P75/P90 per year at retirement for super, non-super, and combined. 1,000 simulations by default.

Gap analysis engine

Architecture
Binary search on three separate dimensions, each holding all other inputs constant (including partner balance, which is always fixed at user input).
Extra NCC per year
Searches in $100 steps from $0 to $120,000 — the minimum additional NCC needed to reach the target balance.
Earliest retirement age
Searches from currentAge+1 to 80 — the earliest age at which the target balance is reached.
SG boost equivalent
Searches in 0.1% steps from 0% to 15% — the additional SG rate that would close the gap.
Bridge analysis
Compares non-super balance at preservation age against (annualIncome × bridgeYears). Signals whether non-super covers spending from early retirement to age 60.
Preservation age
Fixed at 60 (current legislated age).

What the Projection Calculator does not model

  • Defined benefit accumulation schemes
  • Spouse contribution splitting
  • SMSF-specific rules
  • Capital gains tax on non-super assets
  • Age Pension interaction during accumulation phase
  • Multiple bring-forward windows in the same projection
  • Forward indexation of concessional cap and Transfer Balance Cap is approximated using fixed long-run AWOTE (3.5%) and CPI rates respectively — actual annual government decisions may differ

How the model works

Year-by-year simulation
The model runs one year at a time from retirement. Each year: apply investment returns → receive income → calculate spending → fund spending from accounts → apply Age Pension means test → record results.
Annual time steps
The simulation uses annual (not monthly) time steps. Intra-year timing is not modelled. This is standard for long-horizon retirement planning models.
The three accounts
Cash account (overflow buffer, earns cash return rate, accessed first); Sequencing buffer (deliberate defensive reserve, earns cash return rate, accessed second); Main super (primary growth portfolio, minimum drawdown rules, accessed last).
Withdrawal waterfall
Each year, spending is funded in strict order: (1) Cash account, (2) Sequencing buffer, (3) Super and/or non-super investments. Super is inaccessible before preservation age (60).
Non-super investments
When enabled, tracked alongside super. Returns scaled proportionally to super in historical and MC modes. Subject to Age Pension deeming and assets test each year.
Downsizer contribution
At the configured age, contribution added to super, remaining proceeds to non-super account, homeowner status updates — all before the Age Pension means test for that year.
Income floor first
All fixed income (defined benefit pension, Age Pension, other income) applied before drawing from the portfolio. Only the shortfall is funded from accounts.
Return application
Returns applied to main super balance at start of each year before withdrawals. Buffer and cash earn the separate cash return rate (default 3%).
Minimum drawdown
ATO requires minimum annual super withdrawals (4% at 60–64, rising to 14% at 95+). Excess above spending flows into the cash account.
CPI indexation
Spending, pension income, and Age Pension rates all indexed to CPI each year. ⚠ Model simplification: the legislated indexation for Age Pension payment rates is the higher of CPI or MTAWE (Male Total Average Weekly Earnings), not CPI alone. The model uses CPI only, which may understate Age Pension income in periods where wages outpace inflation. Asset test thresholds and income test free areas are CPI-indexed only, so those are correctly modelled.
Guardrails interaction
Guardrails adjust base spending — not minimum drawdowns, debt repayments, or aged care costs. The pension income floor prevents cuts below fixed income.

Simulation engine

Simulation horizon
Single mode: Modelled Death Age minus Retirement Age plus 1 year. Couple mode: Couple Horizon Years setting. Parametric MC with stochastic mortality: each run samples its own death age. Historical MC: always fixed 35 years. Formal stress test D1: fixed 45 years.
Fees
Not explicitly modelled. Reduce your expected return assumption by your estimated fee percentage (e.g. 0.5% fee on 7% return → set 6.5%). Typical Australian industry super fees: 0.5–1.0% p.a.

The simulation runs in nominal (future) dollars. Display mode is a presentation layer only — no effect on success rates or Age Pension calculations.

Age Pension (March 2026 rates)

Maximum rates
Single: $31,224/yr ($1,200.90/fn). Couple combined: $47,071/yr ($1,810.42/fn).
Asset test — homeowner
Full pension below $321,500 (single) / $481,500 (couple). Cuts out at $722,000 (single) / $1,085,000 (couple). Reduces $3/fn per $1,000 above lower threshold.
Asset test — non-homeowner
Full pension below $579,500 (single) / $739,500 (couple). Cuts out at $980,000 (single) / $1,343,000 (couple).
Income test free area
$5,668/yr (single), $9,880/yr (couple combined). Pension reduces 50c per dollar above threshold.
Deeming rates
1.25% on first $64,200 (singles; $106,200 couples), 3.25% above. Applied to all financial assets including super.
Work Bonus
$7,800/yr per eligible partner (employment/self-employment income only, age 67+). Unused amounts accumulate up to $11,800/person.
Eligibility age
67 (current legislated age).
Means test logic
Both asset test and income test applied each year — the result that produces the lower pension is used.
DB pension deductible amount
An optional input that reduces the assessable DB pension income in the income test before applying the taper. Modelled as a fixed nominal deduction (does not CPI-index) consistent with how Services Australia applies it. Defaults to $0 — without it the income test is applied to the full pension, producing a conservative (lower) Age Pension estimate. Enter the amount Services Australia calculates from your contribution history.

This is a simplified model for planning purposes. Actual entitlements are determined by Centrelink and may differ due to grandfathering rules and other factors not modelled here.

Superannuation

Minimum drawdown rates
4% (ages 60–64), 5% (65–74), 6% (75–79), 7% (80–84), 9% (85–89), 11% (90–94), 14% (95+). Applied annually regardless of spending needs.
Transfer Balance Cap
$2.0M (2025–26), rising to $2.1M from 1 July 2026. Super above this cap cannot be held in pension phase tax-free. ⚠ Model limitation: the TBC is held at $2.0M (or $2.1M post-July 2026) for the entire simulation. In practice the TBC rises in $100k CPI increments — over a 20-year projection it may reach approximately $2.6–2.8M. This means the model is slightly conservative for users near the current TBC with long horizons, as it overstates the portion of earnings subject to accumulation-phase tax.
Tax treatment
Super income stream is tax-free after age 60 in pension phase. Accumulation phase earnings taxed at 15%.
Pre-60 retirement
⚠️ Super cannot be accessed until you meet the conditions of release, usually not before the preservation age (60). The calculator enforces the preservation age — pre-60 spending must be funded from other sources.
Concessional contributions cap
$30,000/yr (2025–26). Fully modelled in the Projection Calculator — carry-forward, maximise flag, Div 293.
Non-concessional contributions cap
$120,000/yr (2025–26). Bring-forward rule allows up to $360,000 over 3 years. Fully modelled in the Projection Calculator.
Low-Rate Cap
$245,000 (2025–26). Applies to taxable component withdrawals before age 60. Not modelled — enter after-tax amounts if retiring before 60.
Division 293
Modelled in the Projection Calculator (accumulation phase). Not modelled in the drawdown simulation.
SAPTO / LITO
Effectively make income up to ~$32,279 (single) or ~$28,974 each (couple) tax-free for eligible pensioners. Modelled in super drawdown calculations.

Returns and inflation

Default CPI
2.5% per annum (user-adjustable 0–10%).
Parametric MC — distribution
Lognormal return distribution. Default: 6.5% mean, 10% standard deviation (balanced growth). Presets: Conservative (5%/8%), Balanced (6.5%/10%), Growth (8%/14%), High Growth (9%/18%).
AU Equities — XAOA
1980–2024 (45 years). Source: ASX/LSEG.
AU Balanced 60/40
1990–2024 (35 years). Composite of AU equities and bonds.
US S&P 500
1928–2025 (98 years). Source: Shiller/Yale CAPE data, Ibbotson SBBI.
Historical MC sampling
Block bootstrap (5-year blocks), shuffled years, or 35-year complete blocks.

Past returns are not indicative of future performance. Historical data is used to generate plausible return sequences — not to predict future markets.

Mortality

Source
Australian Bureau of Statistics Life Tables 2020–2022 (ABS 3302.0.55.001).
Default death age
Interpolated from ABS period life tables by sex and current age. Example: a 60-year-old male defaults to age 84; a 55-year-old female defaults to age 87.
Stochastic mortality (MC)
Each parametric Monte Carlo run samples a death age from a normal distribution centred on ABS life expectancy, SD = 10 years. Historical MC always uses fixed 35-year windows.

We recommend modelling to at least age 90. A 65-year-old today has approximately a 1-in-4 chance of living to 90.

Aged care

Probabilistic entry
Age-based probability derived from ABS mortality tables. Each Monte Carlo run independently draws an entry age and duration.
Deterministic entry
Fixed entry age specified by the user. Used in non-MC scenarios.
RAD (Refundable Accommodation Deposit)
Withdrawn from super at entry as a lump sum. Refunded to the estate on exit. Default: $400,000.
Annual ongoing costs
Basic daily fee plus means-tested care fee. Not refundable; indexed to CPI. Default: $65,000/yr. National median residential stay: approximately 3 years.

Spending model

Constant Real
Annual spending grows by CPI. Purchasing power maintained throughout retirement.
J.P. Morgan Curve
Based on Blanchett (2014) and J.P. Morgan (2024) research. Real spending declines 1.0% p.a. (years 1–10), 1.5% p.a. (years 11–20), 0.5% p.a. (years 21+). Aged care modelled separately.
Forgo Inflation modifier
Skips CPI uplift in years following a negative portfolio return. T. Rowe Price method. Morningstar 2025: lifts safe withdrawal rate from 3.9% to 4.3% at 90% success.
Guardrails (Guyton-Klinger)
Adjusts spending when withdrawal rate drifts above or below initial rate. Default: ±20% trigger, 10% adjustment. Morningstar 2025: supports 5.2% starting withdrawal rate at 90% success.

What the Retirement Readiness Calculator does not include

  • Investment fees (reduce your expected return assumption to approximate)
  • Centrelink Rent Assistance (relevant for non-homeowners)
  • State-based concessions and utilities discounts
  • Tax on investment income outside super
  • Future changes to legislation
  • Relationship breakdown or asset splitting
  • Business assets, trusts, or complex ownership structures
  • Franking credit refunds as a separate income stream (embedded in AU equity returns)

Scenario Comparison — modelling assumptions

Simulation mode
All scenario lines use deterministic (constant-return) simulation regardless of which mode is active in the main calculator. This ensures all lines are comparable — each difference reflects only the parameter being varied, not random path variation.
Spending
Spending is fixed at the user's configured baseSpending for all non-spending scenarios. The solver does not re-run for each scenario. This means the scenario lines show the portfolio impact of a pure parameter change, holding financial behaviour constant.
Stochastic irregular expenses
Non-recurring expenses (one-offs, windfalls, irregular health costs) are excluded from all scenario lines. Including stochastic expenses would cause lines to diverge at random points unrelated to the parameter being tested, making the comparison meaningless. The same exclusion applies to the Sensitivity Analysis grid.
Sequencing buffer
The sequencing buffer allocation is held constant across all scenarios (computed once from the base scenario). Previously, re-running the solver for each return scenario caused the buffer allocation to change, shifting the starting balance of each line.
Current settings line
The 'Current settings' line in the Scenario Comparison uses the same deterministic engine as the other scenarios, not the main simulation. This means it may differ slightly from the main balance chart if stochastic features (irregular expenses, mortality) are active. This is intentional — the comparison is designed to be internally consistent, not to reproduce the main chart.
Not financial advice. RetireConfident is a modelling tool intended to help you think through retirement scenarios. It does not constitute personal financial advice under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Always consult a licensed financial adviser before making financial decisions.

Engine reuse — same simulation as the Readiness Calculator

Architecture
The Manager calls the same runSimulation function as the Retirement Readiness Calculator. There is no second simulation engine. A thin adapter (manageAdapter.ts) maps the Manager's 4-bucket account model and store fields into a SimulationInput; the engine produces a SimulationYearResult[]; the adapter reads source-attribution fields back to produce per-account draw recommendations.
Engine extensions
Two optional fields were added to SimulationInput to support the Manager: accumulationSuperBalance (separate super pool with no minimum drawdown) and apOverrideYear0 (year-1 override of the Age Pension means-test result). Both default to no-ops; existing Readiness callers behave identically. Engine extensions are protected by per-year exact-value golden fixture tests across nine representative scenarios.
Per-account recommendation
The cashflow plan reads source-attribution fields from year 1: superDrawnForMinimum + superUsedForSpending + superUsedForRAD → ABP draw; accumulationSuperUsedForSpending + accumulationSuperUsedForRAD → super accumulation; bufferUsedForSpending + bufferUsedForRAD → user cash; nonSuperWithdrawn → shares. The engine's internal cashAccount (built up from min-drawdown surplus and excess income) is NOT counted as a user cash draw — that money originated from the ABP.

Account model — four kinds, multiple per kind

Account kinds
ABP (account-based pension) · Super accumulation · Cash · Shares non-super. Multiple accounts per kind are allowed; balances are summed by kind for engine input. Each Account is identified by a stable id so the actuals ledger can record per-account end-of-year balances.
ABP
Subject to legislated minimum drawdown (4–14% by age — see next row). Earnings tax-free inside the fund. Drawn first within the super pool when spending exceeds income.
Super accumulation
No minimum drawdown. Earnings still tax-free in the model (a v1 simplification — accumulation phase is taxed at 15% in reality, but the user's expectedReturn is treated as the net rate they receive). Drawn after the ABP within the super pool.
Cash
Drained first when spending exceeds income (after the engine's internal cashAccount float, which is recycled ABP min-drawdown). Earns the cashReturnRate. Stored as the engine's sequencingBuffer field; the engine's separate cashAccount (always initialised at 0) is reserved for internal recycling and is not addressable from the Manager UI.
Shares non-super
Drained last by default (controlled by nonSuperDrawdownOrder = 'non_super_first'). Earns expectedReturn − sharesTaxDragPct (see Tax treatment). No CGT or franking modelling.
Couple-mode attribution
In couple mode the engine ignores SimulationInput.mainSuperBalance and reads super from partner1.superBalance + partner2.superBalance. The adapter attributes ALL ABP balance to partner1, with partner2.superBalance = 0. Accumulation super is treated as a single primary-owned pool. Material per-partner splits are not modelled in v1.

ABP minimum drawdown — legislated rates

Source
Schedule 7, Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Regulations 1994. Same rates the Readiness Calculator uses. Implemented in app/engine/superannuation.ts.
Rates by age
Under 65: 4% · 65–74: 5% · 75–79: 6% · 80–84: 7% · 85–89: 9% · 90–94: 11% · 95+: 14%. Applied to opening balance of the ABP at the start of each financial year.
Pre-60 behaviour
Minimum drawdown only applies in pension phase (age ≥ 60). Before 60, ABP balances are not legally accessible. The Manager flags pre-60 spending shortfalls as insufficientFunds.
Surplus handling
If the legislated minimum exceeds the user's spending need, the surplus accrues in the engine's internal cash float (reported as a 'Surplus → cash float' row in the cashflow plan). It is NOT lost. Subsequent years draw from this float first before touching other balances.
Accumulation pool exemption
Minimum drawdown is NOT applied to the accumulation super balance. This is the engineering rationale for distinguishing the two pools — without it, the engine would force-deplete super accumulation balances each year contrary to legislation.

Tax treatment

ABP earnings
Treated as tax-free. Matches Australian pension-phase super tax law.
Super accumulation earnings
Treated as tax-free in v1. The user's expectedReturn is interpreted as the post-tax rate they will actually receive. ⚠ A more rigorous model would deduct a 15% tax on accumulation earnings within the super wrapper. The user can compensate by lowering expectedReturn for portfolios with significant accumulation balances.
Cash returns
cashReturnRate is treated as gross. Income tax on cash interest (typically marginal rate) is NOT modelled. Conservative for retirees in low brackets; understates tax for higher-income retirees.
Shares (tax drag knob)
A single sharesTaxDragPct field is subtracted from gross return on shares-non-super accounts. nonSuperReturnRate = expectedReturn − sharesTaxDragPct. nonSuperBaseReturnRate = expectedReturn (so MC paths scale shares proportionally with super returns).
What tax drag does NOT model
CGT events (timing of realised gains), the difference between assessable income and capital gains, franking credits, the CGT discount on assets held >12 months, the interaction between dividend income and the Age Pension income test, or the difference between marginal rates. Treat results as directional when shares are a large fraction of the portfolio.
Division 293 / Division 296
Not modelled in the Manager (these primarily affect contribution and high-balance phases, less relevant for the post-retirement use case).

Actuals ledger — replay-forward semantics

Storage
ActualYear[] in the useManagerStore Zustand store, persisted to localStorage under the key 'managerStoreV2'. Sorted ascending by FY string ('YYYY-YY'). Each row carries: fy, endingAge, accountBalances (Record<accountId, number>), actualSpending (nullable), actualAgePension (nullable), notes.
Replay rule
When projecting, the most recent ActualYear's accountBalances replace the live state.accounts[].balance values for projection purposes. Implemented via the accountBalanceOverrides option on toSimulationInput. The live accounts panel is reference only when the ledger is non-empty (a banner indicates this).
Identification of latest
Sort actuals by FY string descending; first row is 'latest'. Lexicographic comparison of 'YYYY-YY' strings happens to match chronological order for FY values within the same century.
Overrides for unknown account ids
Silently ignored. If an account is deleted after a ledger row references it, the projection still works — the deleted account contributes zero to its kind's bucket sum. Stale account ids ARE preserved in the ledger row (visible in the expanded view as '[deleted account ...]').
Editing semantics
Inline edit replaces the row's balances/spending/AP/notes. The FY field is locked when editing — changing the FY is effectively a delete + re-add, achieved via the ✕ button. Multiple ledger rows with the same FY can exist if the legacy migration produced duplicates; they collapse on the first add/edit for that FY (addActual filters by fy match).

Goal-based sustainable-spending solver

Algorithm
Binary search over annual spending levels. At each candidate level, run N Monte Carlo paths (default 500) by calling runSimulation with fresh stochastic return sequences. For each enabled goal, count paths where the goal's success criterion is met at the goal's targetAge. A spending level passes if all goals' achievedProbability ≥ goal.successThreshold.
Search bounds
Lower = essentialSpendingFloor. Upper = max(floor × 4, totalAssets / max(5, yearsToHorizon × 0.25)). Runs an infeasibility check at floor first (returns infeasible flag if even floor fails) and an unconstrained check at ceiling (returns unconstrained flag if even ceiling passes).
Termination
30 max iterations or $100 tolerance, whichever first. Result rounded to nearest $100. ~15,000 simulations per solver call, typically 1-3 seconds in browser.
Default objective (no goals)
When no goals are enabled, the solver targets 'portfolio survives horizon at 85% confidence'. Confidence threshold parameterised via SolverOptions.defaultSuccessThresholdPc.
Return distribution
Lognormal draws using the Box-Muller method (sampleLognormalReturn from monteCarlo.ts). Same parameterisation as the Readiness MC: μ_log = ln(1 + expectedReturn/100) − σ²/2, σ = volatility/100.
Binding goal identification
The goal with the smallest (achievedProbability − successThreshold) margin at the recommended level is flagged as the binding constraint. Marked with ◆ in the goal outcomes section.
What the solver does NOT do
Does not optimise across multiple years (each MC run uses the same fixed annual spending — it does not search for a varying spending path). Does not model dynamic spending strategies like guardrails. Does not consider variance reduction techniques (antithetic variates, etc.).

Age Pension — same as the Readiness Calculator, with optional year-0 override

Source
AGE_PENSION_MAR_2026 in app/data/agePensionParams.ts. Same parameter block the Readiness Calculator uses.
Project mode (default)
Engine means-tests every year of the projection: assets test (using projected balances + nonSuperAssets) and income test (deeming financial assets at the published thresholds). Final pension is the lower of the two binding tests, capped at the maximum rate. Rate indexed annually by max(CPI, MTAWE). MTAWE approximated as CPI + 0.75% (long-run historical differential).
Pin year-0 mode
Replaces the year-1 AP figure with the user's pinned Centrelink amount (entered as fortnightly $ × 26 = annual). Year 2 onwards reverts to means-testing. Pinning forever would be incorrect — balances change as the user draws down. agePensionDetails on the year-1 row is set to null when overridden (the audit trail no longer represents an engine calculation).
Accumulation super in assets test
In v1 the assets test treats accumulationSuperBalance as fully assessable. The Centrelink rule that exempts a partner's accumulation super if they are under pension age is NOT applied. Conservative when both partners are 67+; understates AP when one partner is under 67.
Survivor pension
The store carries a survivorAgePensionFortnight field but it is not yet plumbed through to the engine. v1 estimates the survivor pension via the (max single / max couple-each) ratio applied to the couple's combined annual figure.

Mortality — only used in stochastic solver paths

Deterministic projection
Horizon = max(1, 100 − currentAge). Mortality is NOT sampled. The projection runs to age 100 by default for headline display.
Solver MC paths
Each path uses the deterministic horizon — mortality is not sampled per-path in the solver. This is a v1 simplification matched to the legacy Manager's behaviour. The Readiness Calculator's MC sampler uses ABS period life tables; integrating that into the Manager's solver is a future enhancement.
Couple-mode death scenarios
The Manager models survivor scenarios via the deathScenario field (both-alive / partner1-dies / partner2-dies) and scenarioDeathAge. When a partner dies, income streams with survivorFraction revert at that age, and the Age Pension reassesses at the singles rate. The summary panel shows the key before/after differences at the death year.

Known v1 limitations

Single accumulation pool
accumulationSuperBalance is treated as held by one person, not split per partner. In couple mode it is attributed to partner 1.
Accumulation in AP assets test
No under-67 exemption applied to the accumulation portion. Conservative when one partner is under 67.
Pre-60 super access
Uses the primary's age, not per-partner. Edge case for couples with a large age gap.
Tax drag is a single knob
No CGT, franking, or marginal-rate modelling. Treat results as directional for shares-heavy portfolios.
DB pension survivor reversion
Income streams with survivorFraction revert correctly when a survivor scenario is active (deathScenario = partner1-dies / partner2-dies). Reversion is NOT automatic outside of an explicit survivor scenario — it requires the user to activate the scenario in the Profile card.
Solver mortality
Solver does not sample stochastic mortality. Each MC path runs to the deterministic horizon. Goal probabilities therefore measure 'probability of meeting goal CONDITIONAL on living to that age'.
Goal types
Four types only (balance_at_age, funded_event, estate, ruin_avoidance). All score against totalBalance — no per-account goals or income-stream goals.
What-if comparison
Year-1 only. Multi-year comparison and goal-probability comparison for what-if scenarios are not yet exposed.
Same-FY ledger duplicates
Migrated rows from the legacy Manager may produce multiple ActualYear entries per FY. Cosmetic — collapses on first add/edit for that FY.
Not financial advice. RetireConfident is a modelling tool intended to help you think through retirement scenarios. It does not constitute personal financial advice under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Always consult a licensed financial adviser before making financial decisions.